DBS Group Research says Singapore’s economy could more than double to US$1.2–1.4 trillion by 2040 (from ~US$547b in 2024), with real GDP growth averaging ~2.3% a year over the next 15 years. The bank also floats a bold currency call: the Singapore dollar reaching parity with the US dollar by 2040, – reports Reuters
Key forecasts
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GDP: US$1.2–1.4tn by 2040 (vs. US$547b in 2024).
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Growth pace: ~2.3% real per year to 2040—faster than many advanced economies.
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Currency: SGD–USD near 1:1 by 2040, underpinned by policy discipline, productivity gains, capital inflows, and a persistent current-account surplus.
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Equities: The STI crossed 4,000 in 2025; DBS projects it could approach 10,000 by 2040 if the growth path holds.
Why DBS thinks it’s plausible
DBS points to four pillars:
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Macro discipline and policy credibility.
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Productivity improvements sustaining real growth.
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Ongoing capital inflows and Singapore’s safe-haven appeal.
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A structural current-account surplus supporting a stronger SGD over time.
Implications for businesses and investors
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Treasury & FX: If SGD appreciates structurally, USD-denominated revenues translate into fewer SGD over time. Exporters may want more natural hedging; importers benefit from stronger purchasing power.
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Asset allocation: A bigger economy and deeper markets (DBS also flags ongoing market-development efforts) could broaden local equity and credit opportunities—relevant for regional portfolios benchmarking Singapore risk.
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Planning horizon: The call spans 15 years. Treat it as a long-term base case, not a short-term trading view.
What to watch next
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Growth drivers: productivity, high-value services, and capital-markets depth.
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Policy signals: any moves that affect the current-account surplus or long-run FX path.
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Market milestones: whether the STI holds above 4,000 and trends toward DBS’s 2040 marker.
Bottom line: DBS’s scenario sketches a larger, stronger-currency Singapore by 2040. If it plays out, strategy shifts for FX, pricing, and asset location will matter more for regional operators—and sooner than most planning cycles assume.
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